Kentucky Derby – What It Might Take to Make It to the Gate

A brief look at the history of the Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby, the crown jewel of American thoroughbred racing, will be run for the 141st time on Saturday May 2, 2015 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. Inspiration for the race dates back to mid 19th century England when Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark, Jr. visited Europe and was captivated by the Epsom Derby, England’s most prestigious race. He returned home to Kentucky with a vision to start a Louisville Jockey Club, which would conduct race meets and showcase the states successful breeding program. This idea and a plot of land in Louisville became Churchill Downs, the site of every Kentucky Derby. Though the track opened in 1875, it was not until 1888 that the name became “Churchill Downs.” Credit for the name goes to the Louisville Commercial, a former publication that used the name when discussing the 1883 Kentucky Derby. While the tradition continues, a lot has changed since 1875; including the distance of the race, the field size, and most importantly the process for earning a spot in the starting gate.

STARTING IN 1986, GRADED STAKES EARNINGS WERE USED TO SELECT THE 20 HORSES TO LINE UP THE FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY.

Graded stakes races are the highest caliber of thoroughbred races in North America. Each year, a committee gets together and selects those races deemed worthy of graded status. On top of this prized distinction, the committee is also responsible with assigning a Grade from 1-3. Grade 1’s are the highest caliber, with the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Kentucky Derby serving as good examples, while Grade 3 races are a few cuts below Grade 1 but still extremely difficult to win. Beginning in 1986, the 20 Three Year Olds with the highest Graded Stakes earnings were offered a spot in the starting gate, with the horse sitting at 21st in graded stakes earnings considered the “first alternate” should anyone in the top 20 not participate for a variety of reasons. This formula was popular for many years, but failed to place “enough” importance on the horses recent body of work. The issue with this is that many horses have outstanding two year old seasons and perform well in graded stakes races but fail to progress as a 3 year old. The winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile often fell into this category as the winner’s share of the pursue was beyond the required earnings needed to qualify any year. It also punished horses that were late to start their racing careers. While these are some of the negatives, the positives were that only the money earned in the highest caliber of races was counted.

FAST FORWARD TO 2012 AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY.

By 2012, there had been plenty of discussion as to the need for a new qualification system. Some were frustrated with the current system and its lack of emphasis on the horses recent body of work, while others felt there wasn’t enough build up to the Run for the Roses. These factors, and many others, led to Churchill Downs overhauling the current system and introducing the new one, dubbed the Road to the Kentucky Derby Series. The series started in the two year old season of 2012 to select the horses for the 2013 Kentucky Derby, a race restricted to 3 year olds. The Road to the Kentucky Derby consists of 35 total races, 19 races that make up the Kentucky Derby prep season, and 16 races that comprise the Kentucky Derby Championship Series. All 19 races in the prep season carry an equal point total, 10 points to the winner. 4 points to 2nd, 2 points to 3rd, and 1 point to 4th. These races serve as launching pads for the bigger and more lucrative races, but two wins in the prep season may carry your horse all the way to the entry box. The prep season, save the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, wraps up after the Southwest at Oaklawn Park on February 16th and the Championship series starts just 5 days later with the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star, at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds respectively. The championship series starts with a point scale of 50-20-10-5 and grows to 100-40-20-10 for the 7 largest Kentucky Derby preps. Winning any race in the Championship series would guarantee a spot in the Derby, on the basis of points, but not surprisingly the races get increasingly tougher as the point values get higher.

AS YOU CAN SEE, THERE IS NO BLUEPRINT TO QUALIFY FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY.

In just 2 and a half years, we have seen several different approaches to racking up points. Some connections choose to race consistently in an attempt to pick up a steady stream of points, while others put all their eggs in one basket and focus on one specific qualifying race. Last year, because of a late start to his career, that horse was Social Inclusion. Social Inclusion needed a top two finish in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct to earn enough points to qualify for the 2014 Kentucky Derby. After racing on the pace throughout, Social Inclusion tired and was overtaken in the final jump to finish a tough luck 3rd. He earned 20 points for his 3rd place finish but was left in South Florida sitting on the bubble. With no guarantees that he would get in, his connections decided to keep him at home, rather than to take their chances on a last minute defection. While it is hard to predict how many points will be needed in 2015, the magic question, let the race video below serve as a reminder of just how close the margin can be.